The Future?

As we said in the last blog, we had some time with the Dr. today and got to ask a lot of questions. He got even by okaying my chemo today, but did decrease the dose by 25%. This should help with the effect on my white cells. My white cell count is still low but in line with previous tests.

After questioning the Dr. about how much of the cancer is killed by the chemo as determined by the CT and PET scans, how one can use that to predict the amount left in the body after 6 cycles (I just got cycle 5), and how fast the cancer cells grow, I got many facts that boil down to: "it depends".

The effect of the chemo on the tumor is not linear, being more effective in the first few cycles and less effective as time and usage go on. (A demonstration of the well known natural selection principle). An attempt to counter this is why I have three different kinds of chemo treatments. Also, the growth rate of esophogeal cancer can vary from 30 day to 120 day doubling rate. The Dr. was very clear that because of the non-linearities and the varied growth rate, even in the same patient, it is difficult to predict the future course of the disease.

All that said, the fact of my engineering background and present occupation as statistician make it almost impossible for me to avoid making some kind of estimate, even one with wide limits. So I read over the CT and PET scan reports, took into account the non-linear nature of the process and the wide limits on the growth rate and (leaving out the numbers for all those bored by such things) my prediction is that I MAY be able to take a 3 to 6 month time out from chemo after cycle 6, depending on the results of the next scan. Funny that this is exactly what the Dr. said about 2 visits ago. I like it when the math works out like that.

Our next chemo is scheduled at four weeks from today, Oct. 14th.

Spiritual status: Through adversity God has been teaching us a lot about His nature and how He thinks about us: you get a lot more serious about faith in times like this. And we have taken solace in the fact of God's great love for us and His sovereignty. Because of that we are convinced that our situation has been tailor-made to fit our particular lives at this particular time. We see this in His timing of every detail along the way, in how He has prepared us, in His provision of help from family and friends and prayer partners, in financial provision, and in encouragement through scriptures, sermons, books and radio programs. In all of those ways He has uniquely designed and fine-tuned this experience for His glory and our good. We marvel that even a few years ago we doubt we could have withstood this experience, and we are so glad we can now put our trust in Him and the unique hope He provides.

One of the breakthrough threads Penny and I discussed today started with Rom 8:28 (And we know that in all things God works for the good of those who love him, who have been called according to his purpose) went on to the assurance of what "good" means (Rom 8:29 ...to be conformed to the likeness of his Son) and ended with the really neat thought of how God views us as "in Christ". Since we are in Christ, when God acts to glorify Himself, He cannot help but act for our good. The promise therefore is one of assurance that whatever happens to us, it will end in God's glory and our betterment--those two are inextricably combined by our position in Christ